Global Trade Tensions Soar on Trump Tariff Fears

US Recession Likelihood Soars in Prediction Markets After Trump Tariffs

The likelihood of a US recession has soared in prediction markets following the introduction of tariffs by President Trump, according to data from a major prediction market platform.

The platform, which uses a crowd-sourced approach to predict future events, has seen a significant shift in sentiment among its users since the tariffs were announced. The data suggests that the probability of a recession within the next 12 months has risen sharply, from around 20% to over 40%.

The tariffs, which were imposed on steel and aluminum imports from Canada and Mexico, have been widely criticized by economists and business leaders, who warn that they could trigger a trade war and damage the US economy.

The prediction market data suggests that investors are increasingly concerned about the impact of the tariffs on the US economy. The platform's data shows that the price of a "recession" contract, which pays out if the US enters a recession within the next 12 months, has risen sharply in recent days.

The rise in the price of the recession contract is a clear indication that investors are becoming increasingly bearish about the prospects for the US economy. The data suggests that investors are worried about the potential impact of the tariffs on consumer spending, business investment, and overall economic growth.

The prediction market data is not the only indication that investors are becoming increasingly concerned about the US economy. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond has fallen sharply in recent days, a sign that investors are becoming more risk-averse and seeking safe havens for their money.

The data from the prediction market platform also suggests that investors are increasingly divided about the prospects for the US economy. While some investors are still optimistic about the economy's prospects, others are becoming increasingly bearish and are preparing for the possibility of a recession.

The rise in the likelihood of a recession in prediction markets is a clear indication that investors are becoming increasingly concerned about the US economy. The data suggests that investors are worried about the potential impact of the tariffs on consumer spending, business investment, and overall economic growth.