Market Analysts Pin 2025 US Recession Chances at 63%

US Recession Odds in 2025 Soar to 61% on Kalshi, a Prediction Market

A prediction market called Kalshi has seen a significant surge in bets suggesting that the United States will enter a recession in 2025, with the odds now standing at a whopping 61%.

Kalshi, a decentralized prediction market platform, allows users to bet on various outcomes, including economic events. The platform's data shows that the majority of bettors believe the US will experience a recession in the next two years.

The odds of a recession in 2025 have been steadily rising over the past few months, with the majority of bets placed in the past week alone. This sudden surge in pessimism is attributed to a combination of factors, including concerns over the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, inflation, and the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy.

Kalshi's data also reveals that the majority of bettors believe the recession will be mild, with 34% predicting a recession lasting less than six months, and 27% predicting it will last between six months and a year. Only 10% of bettors think the recession will last more than a year.

The prediction market's data is often seen as a indicator of market sentiment and can influence investor decisions. While it is essential to note that Kalshi's data is not a definitive predictor of future events, it can provide valuable insights into market sentiment and the collective views of a large number of individuals.

As the global economy continues to navigate uncertainty, investors and policymakers will be keeping a close eye on Kalshi's data to gauge the likelihood of a recession in 2025.